Behind the Numbers: A Traditional Church Faces a New America
A Discussion for Social Studies & Sociology Students on the Future of Religion in America
Hank Bitten, Executive Director, NJ Council for the Social Studies
The free exercise of religious beliefs is written into our constitution and has been part of the framework of our democratic society and American identity since the Pilgrims arrived in 1620. The principle of the separation of church and state prevented America from having a religious institution or denomination supported by the state, it has enabled the proliferation of houses of worship, the establishment of colleges to train clergy, the dissemination of religious beliefs into our culture through art, literature, and music, and prayers in public places. Religious beliefs and the practices of denominational churches are part of the tapestry of America.
“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.” (First Amendment)
This is clearly evident in the First and Second Great Awakening, the Sunday School movement, and the missionary zeal in the 19th century to convert people to the Christian faith. The names of Jonathan Edwards, George Whitfield, Charles and John Wesley, Francis Asbury, Billy Sunday, Billy and Franklin Graham, Dwight Moody, Phoebe Smith, Mary Baker Eddy, James Dobson, Tim Keller, Oral Roberts, and Pat Robertson are just a few names that are part of several high school history textbooks.
In the first two chapters of the dissertation, “Behind the Numbers: A Traditional Church Faces a New America”, Rev. Larry Vogel, presents us with a turning point in the first two decades of the 21st century that is an opportunity for discussion, debate, and discernment. The dissertation provides a sociological, anthropological, and theological perspective that is insightful in how evidence is used to support a claim or thesis.
The data from the U.S. Census Bureau presents a vision of America that is as influential today as Jean de Crèvecoeur’s “Letters from an American Farmer” were in 1782. Crèvecoeur tried to describe the ‘new American’ as industrious and religious. The experiences of living during and after the American Revolution changed the colonists from Europeans to Americans. The ‘new American’ following the passage of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 is from global origins and the ‘new American’ is Hispanic, African, and Asian.
By analyzing the census data in this dissertation, high school students will be able to make a claim regarding the importance of religion in American by 2050, the impact of immigration on society, the consequences of a society that is changing over time, and make predictions for the future. In a Sociology class, students can also survey their own community and compare the data with the national data in the U.S. Census.
“As for ethnicity, 61.6% of the US population is White alone (204.3 million), a decline from 223.6 million and 72.4% in 2010. Blacks who self-identified without any other racial combination increased slightly in number between 2010 and 2020 (from 38.9 to 41.1 million), but declined very slightly as a percentage of the population (from 12.6% to 12.4%). The Asian alone population of the US increased both numerically and proportionately. In 2010 14.7 M (4.8%) Americans identified as Asian alone. In 2020 that number swelled to 19.9 M (6%).” The Asian population is projected to more than double, from 15.9 million in 2012 to 34.4 million in 2060, with its share of nation’s total population climbing from 5.1 percent to 8.2 percent in the same period. (p. 58)
In the table below, the majority population in the United States declined 11% in ten years from 2010-2020. Will this trend continue to fall another 10% or will it be greater than 10% in this decade?
In high school social studies classes, teachers ask questions about our American identity. Students look at this over time by discussing how each century defined the emerging American identity? The demographics of what is happening to the religious beliefs of the ‘new American’ are important to our culture, economy, education, families, and government. Religion is perhaps the largest service industry in the United States with more than 100 million people attending worship regularly. The number of subscribers to weekly worship experiences is declining but this change is likely disguised as the ‘new American’ still believes in a supreme deity but expresses this belief differently than the way Crèvecoeur’s ‘American’ did. The insights in “Behind the Numbers: A Traditional Church Faces a New America” encourages the debate in the classroom and in the chancel. The analysis of the data provides a perspective of what life will be like in the United States at mid-century. Some will see this as an opportunity and others as a threat.
To begin our inquiry into the data, examine the population profile of the top ten states with the highest immigrant populations. (pp.66) Half of these states are in the Boston-New York-Philadelphia-Baltimore- Washington, D.C. corridor. A third of these states are in the western region of the United States.
One of the striking observations in the census report is that these changes have occurred after 2000.
“The continued growth of the US population is due to immigration rather than to immigrant birth rates. All-in-all, the foreign-born US population in 2018 was nearly 14% of the total US population and their second-generation children were an additional 12.3% of the total population. This means that fully 25% of the current US population is the result of immigration and that the changing racial-ethnic profile of the US is due almost entirely to immigration in recent decades. As Taylor puts it: “Immigration is driving our national makeover.” (p. 67)
As you review the data in the graph below, consider the implications of this decline in your community and state.
Here are some questions to ask regarding this data?
- Will these demographic trends continue on the same trajectory over the next three decades or escalate?
- Will external events (i.e., climate, artificial intelligence, economic conditions, etc.) have a direct effect on immigration trends?
- Will the immigrant population move to other states as they have in the past?
- As the immigrant population of 2020 ages, how will this influence the ‘new American’ identity?
- As immigrants assimilate into American culture, will they be influenced by the religious institutions in America?
The Census Bureau predicts that the trend toward racial-ethnic diversity will continue: The non-Hispanic White population is projected to shrink over coming decades, from 199 million in 2020 to 179 million people in 2060—even as the U.S. population continues to grow. Their decline is driven by falling birth rates and a rising number of deaths over time as the non-Hispanic White population ages. In comparison, the White population, regardless of Hispanic origin, is projected to grow from 253 million to 275 million over the same period. (p. 236)
Dr. Vogel’s thesis claims that “the underlying support and stimulus for Global Christianity’s surge is the Bible translated into the vernacular. The Bible in whole or in part is available in over 1500 languages, including more than 650 African tongues. With the Bible in their own tongue, Christians in Africa and throughout the globe “can claim not just the biblical story, but their own culture and lore in addition.” (p. 82) However, his thesis also raises the counterargument that the Millennial generation (birth years 1981-1996) is leading the shift away from organized religion, specifically, Christian denominations. According to the Pew research from 2019, 40% of the Millennials (also Generation Y) identify as unaffiliated with 9% claiming a faith other than Christianity. The trend for Generation Z (birth years 1996-2010) will likely be higher.
The perspective of Dr. Mark Chaves of Duke University (and high school student of the author of this article), is that America will likely continue its religious identity in this century. The diversity of the American population will lead to changes, notably that non-Christian beliefs also lead to eternal life. Church membership and worship practices will likely change. A new subculture within the religious and worshipping population may emerge in the 21st century. The ‘new American’ will likely continue helping others in need by donating food, working in a soup kitchen, providing assistance after a disaster, building homes for the homeless, as the volunteer spirit will likely continue throughout this century. But this ‘new American’ may also be influenced by social media and artificial intelligence. Engage your students in exploring answers to these questions and possibilities.
George Hawley of the University of Alabama presents a strong counter argument regarding the demographics of the denominational church in 2022. He cites that 23 percent (almost one-fourth) of the population affiliated with a Christian denominational church are over the age of 65. He also observed that only 13 percent who attend church regularly are under the age of 30. This is not sustainable beyond 2050. Non-Christian religious traditions increased from 5% percent to 7% since 2010. In terms of actual numbers, 13 million Americans identify as atheists and 33 million or 10 percent) have no particular religious affiliation. To place this in perspective, the populations of 49 states are less than 33 million people. The population of Texas is 31 million.
To add a second layer of analysis to our scaffold is the research of the Barna Group which used three factors in determining affiliation with a Christian Church.
- Christian identity with a denominational church
- Regular worship attendance
- Placing faith as a high priority
The data reports that 25% of the American population of 330 million people are practicing Christians. In 2000, the number was 45%! (p. 113) Although weekly church attendance continues to decrease in both Protestant and Roman Catholic churches, the diversity of Roman Catholic congregations appears positive, especially if the United States will continue as a Christian country. “Nearly 40% of Catholic churches are either predominantly or very much non-White. In 2014, The Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA) study of RCC parishes, 323 out of 846 responding parishes could be identified as multi-cultural parishes.
By using the data below, ask this question: ‘Why is Roman Catholic weekly attendance decreasing in the first quarter of this century and Protestant weekly attendance showing a slight increase?’ (Note: the years on the y axis appear to have 1983-1986 reversed with 1995-1996)
This article reflects the data in Chapters 1 and 2 of the dissertation. Chapters 3, 4, 5 include prescriptive information on a case study of the Lutheran Church and information about other denominations. Chapters 4 and 5 include a theological analysis of church history and the inclusion of all people.
https://scholar.csl.edu/phd/146/
Behind the Numbers: A Traditional Church Faces a New America
Larry Vogel, Concordia Seminary, St. Louis
Date of Award 5-19-2023
Abstract
The dissertation examines membership data for The Lutheran Church—Missouri Synod (LCMS) from the mid-1970s to the present. It considers the analysis of LCMS decline by two scholars, George Hawley and Ryan MacPherson, who independently proposed that LCMS membership decline was internal in causation due to diminished birthrates and fewer young families. While acknowledging the reality of such internal decline, this dissertation argues that the lack of external growth is a greater cause for LCMS decline. Its lack of external growth is due primarily to the racial and ethnic homogeneity of the LCMS and its failure effectively to evangelize the increasingly diverse American population. This indicates a theological weakness: a failure to teach and emphasize the catholicity of the church adequately in LCMS catechesis and dogmatic theology.
Recommended Citation
Vogel, Larry, “Behind the Numbers: A Traditional Church Faces a New America” (2023). Doctor of Philosophy Dissertation. 146. https://scholar.csl.edu/phd/146
CHAPTER ONE………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 12
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN THEORY, REALITY, AND APPLICATION …………………..12
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION—A GLOBAL PHENOMENON………………………….. 12
Demographics Defined ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 12
The First Demographic Transition ………………………………………………………………………………… 13
The Second Demographic Transition……………………………………………………………………………… 17
Cause of the Demographic Transition …………………………………………………………………………… 23
US DEMOGRAPHICS ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 24
EFFECTS OF THE DT ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 27
Primary Effects: Declining Births, Increasing Age………………………………………………………….. 27
Secondary Effects: Changes in Female Life Patterns and Family Formation …………………….. 32
RESPONSES TO DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE………………………………………………………………40
Responses to the Demographic Transition: A Survey………………………………………………………..41
China’s Response to Demographic Transition………………………………………………………………… 42
Brazil’s Response to Demographic Transition………………………………………………………………… 45
The European Response to Demographic Transition ………………………………………………………. 47
The North American Response to Demographic Transition……………………………………………… 50
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE……………………………………………………………. 57
New America: Older and More Female………………………………………………………………….. … 58
New America: Greater Diversity…………………………………………………………………………… …. 58
CHAPTER TWO …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 68
THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE AND RELIGION……………………………………………….. 68
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND RELIGIOSITY—A WORLD TOUR …………………………. 68
DT and Religion in Asia ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 68
DT and Religion in Latin America………………………………………………………………………………… 74
DT and Religion in Africa …………………………………………………………………………………………… 78
DT and Religion in Europe …………………………………………………………………………………………. 85
DT and Religion in the United States: Six Trends…………………………………………………………… 92
The Millennial Challenge……………………………………………………………………………………………. 96
The Challenge of Multiethnic America ………………………………………………………………………. 100
The Challenge of Family Decline……………………………………………………………………………….. 102
The Challenge of Income Inequity …………………………………………………………………………….. 104
Conclusion: DT and Religion in America…………………………………………………………………….. 106
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND DECLINE IN AMERICAN CHRISTIANITY…….108
Rise of the Religiously Unaffiliated and the DT……………………………………………………………. 109
The Healthiest Churches……………………………………………………………………………………………. 118
THE NEW AMERICA IN THE ROMAN CATHOLIC CHURCH…………………………………. 123
A Church in Crisis: Flight from the Roman Church …………………………………………………….. 125
A Church’s Hidden Strength: The Diversity of American Roman Catholics…………………….. 127
THE NEW AMERICA IN THE PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH IN AMERICA ……………….. 133
A History of Struggle ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 133
Growth in the PCA through Doctrinal Fidelity and Outreach ……………………………………….. 142
Reflection and Redirection ………………………………………………………………………………………. 144
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